April 16, 2021

Because yesterday’s 7,000 new cases are not like those of March


The sharp increase in cases of Sars-Cov-2 contagion recorded in the last few days in Italy cannot fail to recall the situation in the months of March and April in full lockdown. On October 13, the new positives were 5901 cases, which rose to more than seven thousand on October 14, data worse than last March.

But then are we back to the starting situation?

“No and I’ll explain why – replies Paolo Bonanni, epidemiologist, professor of Hygiene at the University of Florence – the high number of positives found must be compared to the number of swabs that are now carried out 6-7 times higher than in those made last spring. At that time, people with symptoms compatible with a Covid infection, or even serious situations, were checked. now the checks are carried out “on the carpet”, we go to look for the positives among the “contacts”, that is, among the people who have had to deal with a positive even if they are and are the majority of asymptomatic cases.

Different situations

«Now, moreover, among the new cases of infected people under the age of 5 prevail and a non-negligible share is represented by the very young, another sign of a different search for the virus that no longer concerns only those who are ill. This does not mean that there are no people in situations such as to require hospitalization or admission to intensive care, it seems contradictory but it is clear that if the number of subjects checked is increased, they will also discover more in need of specific care. “.

Different percentages

«I would also like to remind you that if in March about 25% of 100 swabs carried out were positive, now we are around at 4-5% for all the reasons mentioned above. In spring, everything was missing: from tests to masks now we are not in the same situation, but this certainly does not mean that we should let our guard down. The precautions to be taken are always the same: respect the safety distances, use masks, wash your hands frequently. And do not be under the illusion that everything has passed: history teaches us that great epidemics have two to three waves before they go out, we are at the beginning of the second. It will also depend on each of us how it goes “

15 October 2020 (modified October 15, 2020 | 12:24)

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